'Toss'에 해당되는 글 1건

  1. 2012.01.12 Probably? probably not. (1)

People often think if they can toss a coin 8 times their chances of seeing heads is around 50%

Worst case 12.5%.

Best case 87.5% of seeing heads.

50% is achieved if you toss the coin about 100,000 times.

This is not a good approach for business. As I have been strugglling to do business for the past 4~5 years. I've seen many plans go to ashes because of using this kind of probability approach. In business this probability does not work like the coin for one major reason.

Business is done with limited resources. Which means that the average result of 8 tosses could all be tails if you are, unlucky. 8 consecutive results of heads could be waiting but since we are restricted with chances we lose.

This is why most of the time the house wins in gambling .The rules of baccarat are the same as tossing a coin and this game is specifically a life ruiner.The more money you have the more chances you can win.

So basically if you are not flowing with money, you have very limited chances. And thinking with this kind of approach. probability can lead you to very discouraging results.

Fortunately the good thing about business is not a 50/50 game and we can actually do a lot more than wait for the chance of luck.

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